# [24H] Hormuz Conflict Risk Premium to Push Brent Crude Several Dollars Higher Intraday

*Issued Friday, July 17, 2026 at 9:19 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-17T09:19:51.870Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-18T09:19:51.870Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Gulf region, Asia-Pacific importers, Europe
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman crude benchmarks, ICE Gasoil futures, Shipping insurance rates for VLCCs and LR tankers, Gold, U.S. Treasuries
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/17492.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, crude benchmarks, particularly Brent, are likely to rise by several dollars per barrel as traders price in heightened disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.–Iran strikes and missile attacks on tankers near Oman. Market participants will react not only to direct tanker damage but to the structural risk of miscalculation that could close or significantly constrain the chokepoint. This will lift related benchmarks such as Dubai/Oman and ICE gasoil and may spur safe-haven flows into gold and U.S. Treasuries. Confirmation would be a sharp intraday spike in Brent and widening backwardation; denial would require credible signs of operational deconfliction and assurances of secure shipping lanes from major navies.

## Drivers

- Reports of US strikes crippling Iran’s coastal links and maritime control nodes
- Missile strike on tanker off Limah, Oman and boarding of an Iranian tanker near Gulf of Oman
- Warnings that Hormuz risk premium is rising amid multi-night U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation
- UKMTO report confirming tanker hit off Oman