# [24H] Houthi Missile and Drone Harassment of Bab el-Mandeb Shipping Likely Begins

*Issued Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 2:27 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-16T14:27:21.163Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-17T14:27:21.163Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Egypt
**Affected Assets**: Crude and product tankers on Middle East–Europe/Asia routes, Container shipping on Asia–Europe lanes, Maritime war risk insurance, Global logistics operators with Red Sea exposure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/17383.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Houthi forces are likely to initiate at least limited harassment of commercial shipping near Bab el-Mandeb—such as attempted missile/drone launches or boarding/threats—short of a full declared closure. Initial targets will likely be tankers and container ships linked to US allies or flagged to Western states, testing red lines and insurance appetites. This will heighten risk perceptions, prompt diversion of some vessels, and set conditions for a rapid escalation to partial closure if Iran’s energy infrastructure is hit. Confirmation would be Houthi claims or independent reports of attacks or forced diversions; denial would be an explicit Iranian directive to Houthis to stand down carried by credible diplomatic channels.

## Drivers

- Reuters reports Iran has ordered Houthis to prepare to close Bab el-Mandeb
- High-confidence reporting of Houthi missiles and drones deployed near the strait
- Pattern of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in prior crises
- Iran–US confrontation entering multi-theater limited war phase