# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes on Russian Rear Airbases Likely to Reattempt Within 24 Hours

*Issued Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 4:47 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-16T04:47:28.250Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-17T04:47:28.250Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Saratov Oblast, Central and southern Russia, Eastern and central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian strategic bomber fleet (Tu‑22M3, Tu‑95MS), Russian air defense inventories, Russian domestic aviation and logistics nodes, Russian sovereign risk spreads
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/17319.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Following reported hits on Engels‑2, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one more long-range drone strike on a high-value Russian airbase or logistics hub in the next 24 hours. Kyiv aims to impose costs on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and demonstrate retaliatory reach while Russia is heavily engaged in front-line and Black Sea strikes. Successful strikes would strain Russian air defense resources and could prompt Russia to divert systems from front-line areas. Confirmation would be OSINT or Russian regional reports of explosions near Engels‑2, Mozdok, Shaykovka, or similar bases; non-occurrence amid heavy Russian counter-drone deployments would challenge this forecast.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian drone impacts at Engels‑2 strategic bomber base
- Sustained trend of Ukraine targeting Russian deep rear logistics and air assets
- Russia’s increased use of Tu‑22M3 bombers and Kh‑22 missiles against Ukraine
- Ukraine’s defense-industrial pivot toward drones and long-range strike