# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Campaign on Russian Refineries Expands Beyond Salavat and Pervy Zavod

*Issued Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-15T22:50:43.451Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-16T22:50:43.451Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia, Volga-Ural region, Black Sea logistics corridors, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and storage farms, Rail and pipeline fuel logistics to front lines, Russian integrated air defense assets, Ukrainian long-range drone inventories
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/17292.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch additional long-range drone strikes against Russian refining or storage facilities beyond the Salavat and Pervy Zavod complexes to exploit demonstrated capability at 2,500 km range. Targets will likely be high-value product hubs or logistics nodes supporting front-line fuel supply. This would deepen Russian air-defense dispersion, marginally constrain fuel availability for military operations, and harden Kremlin resolve to retaliate against Ukrainian energy and urban infrastructure. Confirmation would be new fires or outages at Russian fuel assets attributed to Ukrainian drones; denial would be an operational pause accompanied by Ukrainian messaging emphasizing restraint.

## Drivers

- Successful Ukrainian drone strike disabling Gazprom’s Neftekhim Salavat operations
- Confirmed damage at Pervy Zavod refinery in Kaluga region from recent drone attacks
- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike economic and logistics warfare in the Russia–Ukraine conflict
- Ukraine’s record 2,500km strike range and strategic emphasis on drones