# [24H] US Air Campaign on Southern Iran Likely to Expand to Additional Coastal Military Sites

*Issued Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 1:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-15T01:49:49.764Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-16T01:49:49.764Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Hormozgan Province, Bushehr Province, Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz
**Affected Assets**: IRGC Navy and coastal missile batteries, Iranian coastal radar and C2 nodes, U.S. Navy surface combatants in 5th Fleet, Commercial tankers transiting near Iranian territorial waters
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/17136.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

U.S. forces are likely to expand airstrikes beyond Sirik, Bampur, and Yasuj to additional IRGC coastal and air-defense nodes within 24 hours, while still avoiding direct attacks on Iranian oil facilities. The operational goal will be to suppress launch sites threatening Hormuz naval traffic and U.S. vessels while preserving escalatory leverage over energy infrastructure. This heightens immediate risks to Iranian air defenses and coastal radar networks and increases the chance of Iranian misidentification of civilian shipping as hostile. Confirmation would be new strike claims by CENTCOM or observed explosions at additional Hormozgan or Bushehr military sites; a public U.S. statement declaring a pause in offensive operations would weaken this forecast.

## Drivers

- Recent USAF strikes on Sirik Coast Guard Station and Bampur base
- U.S. declaration of a formal war and maritime blockade on Iranian-linked shipping
- Trump’s rhetoric about further punitive strikes short of oil infrastructure
- IRGC claim of large-scale attacks on U.S. bases and vessels around Hormuz