# [24H] Hormuz Shipping Remains Near Standstill as US–Iran Strikes Continue

*Issued Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 1:53 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-14T13:53:38.045Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-15T13:53:38.045Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Gulf, Europe, East Asia, South Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, LNG spot prices (JKM, TTF), Tanker equities, Marine insurance premia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/17084.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Through the next 24 hours, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain severely curtailed as U.S. and Iranian forces continue reciprocal strikes and both sides signal willingness to fire near or on vessels. Shipmasters and insurers will largely hold loaded tankers outside the chokepoint, with only a trickle of high-priority or already-committed sailings attempting transit under naval escort. This preserves acute risk to crews and raises the chance of misidentification incidents involving neutral flags. Confirmation would come from AIS data showing depressed transit counts and continued reports of attempted or successful attacks; denial would require a visible, declared pause in strikes and a coordinated maritime deconfliction announcement by Washington and Tehran.

## Drivers

- Multiple FLASH alerts that Hormuz shipping is at or near standstill
- US three-night strike campaign inside Iran
- IRGC missile and drone attacks on tankers and US bases
- Open Iranian radio threats to fire on ships approaching the strait
- US naval blockade and 20% toll announcement