# [24H] Brent Crude Likely Spikes Additional 10–20% on Hormuz Combat and Blockade Toll

*Issued Monday, July 13, 2026 at 9:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-13T21:16:42.202Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-14T21:16:42.202Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Major oil-importing economies (EU, China, India, Japan, South Korea)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Gold, US Treasuries, Airline and shipping equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16983.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent Crude is likely to rise an additional 10–20% as markets price in both physical disruption and regulatory toll risk at Hormuz. The active combat zone, IRGC threats, U.S. blockade, and proposed 20% transit toll will prompt traders to assume material shortfall in Gulf exports and sharply higher shipping costs. This spike will pull up WTI, widen certain spreads, drive flight-to-quality into U.S. Treasuries and Gold, and pressure equity indices, particularly in energy-intensive sectors. Confirmation would be Brent trading at levels consistent with loss of several million bpd of at-risk supply and elevated volatility; denial would require unusually rapid de-escalation or credible safe-corridor guarantees that calm traders.

## Drivers

- Reported >8% intraday crude surge already on initial blockade announcements
- U.S. naval blockade reimposition with all flags subject to enforcement
- IRGC live-fire attacks and warnings to all vessels near Hormuz
- Historical sensitivity of oil prices to minor Gulf disruptions, now magnified