# [24H] Iran Likely to Fire Additional Missiles or Drones at Gulf Shipping and U.S. Assets

*Issued Monday, July 13, 2026 at 9:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-13T21:16:42.202Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-14T21:16:42.202Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Southern Iran coastline, U.S. 5th Fleet AOR
**Affected Assets**: Regional naval forces and bases, Commercial tankers and bulk carriers, Marine war‑risk insurance, Defense sector equities, Safe‑haven assets like Gold and CHF
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16979.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Iran’s IRGC is likely to conduct additional missile or drone strikes against either commercial shipping in and near Hormuz or proximate U.S. military assets to reinforce its deterrent messaging. These attacks will aim to demonstrate that the U.S. blockade and toll cannot operate without serious risk, while staying below thresholds Tehran believes would trigger decisive U.S. regime‑threatening strikes. The result will be sustained high operational risk for naval forces and merchant crews, and further justification for U.S. coalition‑building around maritime security. Confirmation would be new impact reports on ships or U.S.-linked installations and fresh IRGC communiqués; a denial case would involve an unexpected Iranian de‑escalation statement and a halt in observed launches.

## Drivers

- Existing IRGC missile attacks on multiple vessels in Hormuz
- IRGC VHF warnings that all ships approaching will be fired upon
- Recent U.S. strikes on Iranian bases and ports, incentivizing retaliatory signaling
- Pattern of Iranian calibrated attacks in prior crises (e.g., 2019–2020 tanker and base strikes)