# [7D] US–Iran Missile Exchange to Expand to Sustained Campaign on Radar and Naval Assets

*Issued Monday, July 13, 2026 at 9:18 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-13T09:18:01.825Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-20T09:18:01.825Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iranian Gulf-facing provinces (Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Bushehr), Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Strait of Hormuz
**Affected Assets**: Coastal radar and air-defense systems, IRGC Navy/IRIN small-boat fleets, US and GCC bases and logistics hubs, Commercial shipping risk profiles in the Gulf
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16917.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, the US–Iran confrontation is likely to evolve into a sustained, though still localized, campaign targeting radar, air defense, and small-boat/naval infrastructure along Iran’s Gulf coast and select US-linked sites in Gulf states. Both sides will avoid direct hits on large urban centers or nuclear facilities but will steadily degrade each other’s maritime domain awareness and strike capabilities. This will normalize intermittent missile and drone launches, raising the risk of a miscalculated strike on commercial shipping or civilian infrastructure. Confirmation would be recurring US and IRGC claims of new precision hits on radars and bases; denial would be a rapid shift to ceasefire discussions or third-party-mediated de-escalation.

## Drivers

- Current US strikes on multiple Iranian cities including Bandar Abbas, Jask, Khuzestan targets, and near Arak
- IRGC claims of regionwide attacks on US targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman
- Emerging trend: US–Iran escalation shifts to reciprocal strategic infrastructure warfare
- Pattern of both sides carefully framing strikes as military, not civilian, targeting