# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Swarms to Hit Additional Russian Oil Logistics in Azov–Black Sea

*Issued Monday, July 13, 2026 at 9:18 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-13T09:18:01.825Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-14T09:18:01.825Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Sea of Azov, Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, Black Sea littoral
**Affected Assets**: Russian shadow fleet oil tankers, Port Kavkaz facilities, LUKOIL-Yugnefteprodukt depots, Russian Black Sea Fleet logistics
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16907.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct further drone swarm attacks against Russian tankers, port facilities, and oil depots in the Sea of Azov and southern Russia. The operational aim will be to incrementally degrade Russia’s shadow fleet and coastal fuel logistics, particularly around Port Kavkaz and similar nodes. This will increase Russian operational costs, stress air defense resources, and raise the psychological pressure on Russian coastal communities. Confirmation would be new verified fires or damage at Russian maritime or fuel assets; denial would be an abrupt cessation of strikes combined with Russian reports of successfully neutralizing launch platforms.

## Drivers

- Reports of 105 Russian ships targeted in eight days, including seven oil tankers hit in the latest barrage
- NASA FIRMS data showing repeated fires at Port Kavkaz and LUKOIL-Yugnefteprodukt depot
- Emerging trend: Ukraine ramps up deep-strike pressure on Russian logistics and maritime assets
- Recent thwarted but persistent Ukrainian attempts on Russian airbases in Chelyabinsk and Amur