# [7D] Iran Expands Missile and Drone Targeting to Include UAE or Saudi Military Installations

*Issued Monday, July 13, 2026 at 3:17 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-13T03:17:12.763Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-20T03:17:12.763Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia (Eastern Province, Riyadh region), Broader Gulf region
**Affected Assets**: Al Dhafra Air Base, Saudi air and naval bases on Gulf coast, Regional missile defense systems (Patriot, THAAD), Civil aviation hubs in UAE and Saudi Arabia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16890.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming week, Iran is likely to expand its retaliatory strike envelope to include at least one military or dual-use installation in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, particularly facilities hosting U.S. or allied aircraft and missile systems. Tehran will judge that limiting strikes only to Bahrain and Jordan fails to impose sufficient cost on the broader coalition enabling U.S. attacks. Such an expansion would significantly widen the war geographically, forcing Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to decide between a restrained defensive response or direct participation in offensive strikes on Iran. Confirmation would be credible impacts or interceptions near Emirati or Saudi bases like Al Dhafra or Jubail; denial would be sustained Iranian focus solely on existing targets and a diplomatic channel that visibly caps retaliation.

## Drivers

- Direct Iranian strikes already targeting Bahrain and Jordan
- Emerging trend of Gulf host-nation exposure as U.S. bases become primary targets
- Escalatory nature of U.S. attacks on Iran’s regular army and core energy assets