# [7D] Targeted U.S. or Israeli Strikes on Iranian Proxy Infrastructure if Hormuz Attacks Persist

*Issued Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 3:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-11T03:16:14.072Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-18T03:16:14.072Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea
**Affected Assets**: Iran-aligned militia depots and missile batteries, U.S. and Israeli air forces, Regional energy infrastructure, Brent Crude, Israeli and GCC defense equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16671.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, if Iran fails to convincingly halt ship attacks, the U.S. and/or Israel are likely to conduct limited but highly visible strikes on Iranian proxy infrastructure in Syria, Iraq, or Yemen rather than mainline Iranian territory. The goal will be to reestablish deterrence while avoiding an immediate general war, but Tehran may retaliate with more aggressive harassment across the region, including Jordan bases and Red Sea lanes. This tit-for-tat will widen the geography of the shadow war and increase the probability of miscalculation drawing in GCC states. Confirmation would be kinetic action on known militia depots or missile sites tied to Iran; denial would be a sustained Iranian pause in maritime attacks and explicit U.S. choice to confine responses to sanctions and cyber.

## Drivers

- U.S. ultimatum with threatened 'harsh' consequences
- Unconfirmed strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base used by U.S. forces
- Pattern of Iran–US–Israel confrontation crossing new thresholds with reciprocal regional strikes
- Iran’s hardened nuclear and legal posture reducing diplomatic off-ramps