# [24H] Follow-On Indirect Fire or Drone Harassment on Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base

*Issued Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 3:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-11T03:16:14.072Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-12T03:16:14.072Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 55% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Jordan, Eastern Syria, Western Iraq, CENTCOM AOR
**Affected Assets**: U.S. Air Force assets at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordanian Air Force infrastructure, MQ-9 and ISR platforms, Regional air mobility and refueling networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16663.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

After the reported triple strike on Muwaffaq Salti air base, there is a meaningful chance of at least one additional harassment incident—rocket, drone, or mortar—within 24 hours to test U.S. and Jordanian defenses. The likely perpetrators are Iran-aligned militias seeking to pressure U.S. deployments perceived as staging nodes for Hormuz operations. Any repeat attack, even if intercepted, will expand U.S. force protection measures and could trigger covert or overt retaliation against militia infrastructure in Syria or Iraq. Confirmation would be fresh impact or interception reports and a spike in ISR around eastern Jordan; denial would be complete quiet and downgraded alert levels at the base.

## Drivers

- Unconfirmed but widely reported three impacts on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base used by U.S. forces
- Broader pattern of Iran–U.S.–Israel reciprocal regional strikes
- CENTCOM assessment of elevated threat level
- U.S.–Iran confrontation around Hormuz incentivizing pressure on U.S. regional hubs