# [7D] Ukraine’s New Long-Range Strike Command Ramps Up Systematic Campaign on Russian Refineries

*Issued Friday, July 10, 2026 at 9:17 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-10T21:17:01.520Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-17T21:17:01.520Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 71% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern and Western Russia, Black Sea and Azov Sea, Ukraine, Adjacent NATO airspace and monitoring regions
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and oil terminals, Rail and pipeline logistics supplying Russian forces, European refined product import flows, Air defense systems allocated away from front lines
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16644.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine’s newly announced long-range ‘global impact’ command is likely to execute at least one additional coordinated wave of deep strikes on Russian refineries and oil terminals beyond the Azov theater. Target sets will likely include facilities in western and southern Russia feeding both domestic military logistics and export streams, aiming to incrementally degrade Russia’s refined product capacity. This will force Russia to divert more air defenses to the rear and harden infrastructure, straining resources and potentially reducing coverage at the front. Confirmation would be a multi-site strike event with Ukrainian attribution tied to the new command; disconfirmation would be a focus shift to tactical front-line targets and a pause in deep strikes.

## Drivers

- Zelensky’s decree creating a consolidated long-range strike command
- Recent Ukrainian confirmation of coordinated strikes on multiple Russian oil assets and vessels
- Emerging trends of institutionalizing long-range warfare and drone-centric doctrine
- Success and publicity of current deep-strike operations against refineries and shadow fleet