# [24H] Ukraine Poised to Continue Nightly Drone Strikes on Russian Refineries and Azov Shipping

*Issued Friday, July 10, 2026 at 3:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-10T15:16:40.586Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-11T15:16:40.586Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Sea of Azov, Black Sea, Southern Russia (Krasnodar, Rostov, Stavropol), Central Russia (Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov), Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian domestic fuel distribution, Urals and ESPO-related crude flows, Gasoline crack spreads (Europe and Mediterranean), Black Sea shipping insurance, Russian rail logistics sector
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16609.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to conduct at least one more wave of long-range drone or missile attacks against Russian refineries and Sea of Azov logistics assets overnight. Russian air defenses and EW units will face mounting strain, with local commanders forced to disperse fuel stocks and redeploy short-range systems from frontline use. Continued hits will deepen Russia’s gasoline shortfall and challenge Moscow’s narrative of rear-area invulnerability, potentially prompting retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Confirmation would be fresh fires, satellite-verified damage, or Russian NOTAMs around affected refineries; denial would be a 24-hour period with no new confirmed strikes inside Russia.

## Drivers

- Fresh Ukrainian strikes on Ilsky refinery, Azov depot, Taganrog terminal
- Up to 35 tankers reportedly damaged in Azov Sea over four days
- Zelensky claim that drones can hit any Russian refinery including Omsk in Siberia
- Russian gasoline production already down to ~65% of seasonal demand