# [24H] Brent and WTI Likely to Spike 3–8% on US–Iran Missile Exchange and Hormuz Threats

*Issued Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-09T22:28:25.089Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-10T22:28:25.089Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Gulf exporters (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran), Major importers (EU, China, India, Japan)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Oil tanker equities and war-risk insurance rates, Energy-sector ETFs and majors (e.g., Aramco, ExxonMobil, Shell)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/16514.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent and WTI crude benchmarks are likely to jump by 3–8% as traders fully price in the risk of US–Iran escalation hitting Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping. Reports of Iranian strikes on US-linked bases and continued US attacks on Chabahar, Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, and Konarak will feed fears of accidental or deliberate damage to export terminals, pipelines, or tankers, even without confirmed hits. The move will be amplified by risk-averse positioning among commodity funds and refiners seeking physical cover. Confirmation would be one-day price gains within or above this band with higher implied volatility; denial would be a flat or negative close accompanied by strong de-escalatory rhetoric from both sides.

## Drivers

- Confirmed or credible reports of missiles and drones targeting US-linked bases across the Gulf
- Third consecutive night of strikes near critical Iranian ports and energy nodes
- Historical oil price behavior during Hormuz crises and Gulf war-risk events
- CENTCOM highlighting safeguarding of 380 million barrels of crude through Hormuz