# [24H] Russia Likely to Launch Large Missile–Drone Barrage on Ukraine’s Power Grid Within 24 Hours

*Issued Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 12:50 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-05T12:50:55.066Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-06T12:50:55.066Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: neutral
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Moldova
**Affected Assets**: European Power Forwards (Germany, Poland), NBP Natural Gas, Ukrainian Sovereign Debt, Defense Contractors (air defense, missile defense)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15979.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Russian Tu‑95MS bombers massed at Olenya and associated OSINT indicators point to a large, coordinated missile‑drone strike on Ukraine within the next day, with high probability of targeting western and central power infrastructure. The primary impact will be further degradation of Ukraine’s electricity network, disrupting industry, rail logistics, and civilian heating/cooling and medical facilities. A major strike will force Kyiv to divert scarce air-defense assets from frontline zones and increase pressure on NATO states for additional interceptors and grid support equipment. Confirmation would come via widespread launch detections, air-raid alerts, and reported impacts on multiple high‑voltage nodes; denial would be a visible stand‑down or redeployment of bombers without launches.

## Drivers

- OSINT reports of Tu‑95MS concentration at Olenya Airbase with preparations complete
- Pattern of recent Russian strikes on 110 kV substations and gas assets in Sumy and Chernihiv
- Escalating Ukrainian deep strikes on Crimea energy and airbases incentivizing retaliation