# [7D] Ukraine Likely to Expand Drone Campaign Against Russian Refineries and Baltic Export Nodes

*Issued Saturday, July 4, 2026 at 8:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-04T08:49:23.015Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-11T08:49:23.015Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 73% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Leningrad Oblast, Central Russia, Black Sea and Baltic export corridors
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and gasoline exports, Russian budget revenue from export duties, Global refined product supply chains
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15875.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 7 days, Ukraine is likely to broaden its drone and possibly missile campaign to hit additional Russian refineries and logistics sites, including other Baltic terminals and interior hubs supporting Black Sea and Baltic exports. This will aim to keep an estimated 40%+ of Russian refining capacity degraded, forcing Moscow into costly subsidies and fuel import or rerouting decisions. Russian air defenses will adapt, but the sheer geographic spread will strain coverage and increase the probability of successful strikes and collateral debris damage. Confirmation would be at least two additional significant hits or fires at Russian energy facilities beyond St. Petersburg/Vysotsk; denial would be a sustained lull due to resource constraints or external pressure from partners.

## Drivers

- Ukraine’s claim that 42.7% of Russian refining capacity has been disabled
- Multiple recent strikes on St. Petersburg terminal, Vysotsk, Crimea, Belgorod power plant
- Emerging trends: Ukraine escalates strategic strikes and defense-industrial surge