# [24H] Ukrainian Forces Likely to Attempt Follow-On Deep-Strike on Russian Energy Infrastructure

*Issued Saturday, July 4, 2026 at 8:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-04T08:49:23.015Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-05T08:49:23.015Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Leningrad Oblast, Belgorod region, Occupied Crimea, Western Russia
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil refineries, Petersburg Oil Terminal, Vysotsk Port infrastructure, Regional power plants
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15863.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch at least a limited additional wave of drones or missiles against Russian energy infrastructure, either in the Baltic corridor or at interior refineries, to sustain pressure after the St. Petersburg and Belgorod hits. The objective will be to keep Russian air defenses stretched and maintain a psychological and fiscal shock effect on Moscow’s leadership and population centers. This risks further debris and collateral damage in Russian urban or port environments, elevating domestic political pressure on the Kremlin. Confirmation would be new Russian regional reports of drone interceptions, fires, or explosions at fuel or power sites; a contrary scenario would be a 24–48 hour operational pause for Ukraine to reconstitute drone stocks.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes on St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, Vysotsk, Crimea, and Belgorod power plant
- Emerging trend: Ukraine escalates strategic strikes on Russia’s energy and logistics depth
- Ukrainian General Staff claim that 42.7% of Russian refining capacity is degraded