# [24H] Iranian Fadjr-1 Rockets in Sudan Likely to Enable Immediate SAF Frontline Pushes

*Issued Friday, July 3, 2026 at 2:49 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-03T14:49:20.853Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-04T14:49:20.853Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 72% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Khartoum State, Central Sudan, Red Sea corridor
**Affected Assets**: Red Sea shipping routes, Port Sudan logistics operations, Humanitarian convoys in Sudan
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15771.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, the Sudanese Armed Forces are likely to employ newly supplied Iranian Fadjr‑1 rockets in concentrated barrages to support local offensives or to break siege lines in contested urban areas. The increased firepower will raise short‑term lethality and could shift micro‑front lines in Khartoum, Omdurman, or central regions, inflicting higher casualties on RSF units and civilians sheltering near targets. This use will further entrench Iranian influence and invite monitoring or interdiction discussions among Red Sea littoral states and Western navies. Evidence of large Fadjr‑1 salvoes, new craters consistent with 107mm rockets, and SAF propaganda showcasing the rockets would confirm the prediction; a sudden lull in SAF offensive activity would argue against near‑term use.

## Drivers

- Fresh frontline video of SAF using Iranian Fadjr‑1 rockets
- AFRICOM assessment of intensified conflict and external support in Sudan
- SAF need for standoff firepower against RSF entrenched positions