# [24H] Ukrainian Drone Strikes Likely to Hit Additional Russian Power Substations Overnight

*Issued Friday, July 3, 2026 at 2:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-03T02:49:30.019Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-04T02:49:30.019Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Western Russia
**Affected Assets**: Russian rail logistics, Russian military fuel depots, Local civilian power grids in occupied Ukraine, Russian domestic refined products availability
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15702.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to extend its drone campaign against Russian-controlled power substations and distribution nodes in occupied territories and possibly near-front Russian regions over the next 24 hours. The operational aim will be to deepen disruptions to Russian logistics, rail operations, and air-defense radar coverage tied to the grid. This will raise risks of localized blackouts for civilians in occupied Crimea, Donbas, and Zaporizhzhia while forcing Moscow to divert air defenses and engineering units from the front. Confirmation would be geolocated imagery of new substation fires or outages reported by local Russian/occupation sources; denial would be a 24‑hour lull in reported strikes or a visible shift to purely tactical frontline targeting.

## Drivers

- Reports that 13 Russian-controlled power stations in occupied Ukraine were shut down
- Emerging trend of Ukrainian deep-strike drone campaign on Russian industrial and power assets
- Recent 48-hour pattern of strikes on at least 12 substations and a major refinery