# [24H] U.S.–Turkey Publicly Signal Roadmap Milestones for Lifting CAATSA and Restoring F‑35 Access

*Issued Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 8:52 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-02T20:52:51.831Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-03T20:52:51.831Z (21h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: de-escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Turkey, United States, Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea
**Affected Assets**: Lockheed Martin and U.S. defense equities, Turkish lira (TRY), Turkish defense sector, Eastern Mediterranean gas project investments
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15678.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next day, Washington and Ankara are likely to outline at least a broad political roadmap—if not specific dates—for unwinding CAATSA sanctions and re-opening Turkey’s path to the F‑35 program. Both sides have already telegraphed intent, and near-term signaling will be calibrated to reassure markets and NATO partners without triggering immediate backlash from Russia. This will modestly ease friction in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, while signaling to other sanctioned states that political flexibility on U.S. systems is possible. Confirmation would be joint statements, ministerial press conferences, or leaks detailing technical and legislative steps; an unexpected congressional pushback or Turkish demand linkage to unrelated issues (e.g., Syria) could delay the process.

## Drivers

- Multiple alerts that U.S. and Turkey are committed to lifting CAATSA sanctions
- Expectation that F‑35 sales will resume once sanctions end
- Turkey’s strategic role in NATO and regional energy transit
- Need for visible progress to maintain bilateral momentum