# [24H] Ukrainian Retaliatory Drone and Missile Strikes on Russian Energy, EW Assets Continue Within 24 Hours

*Issued Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 8:52 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-02T20:52:51.831Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-03T20:52:51.831Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Crimea, Southern Russia, Occupied Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries, Russian power substations, Military electronic warfare complexes, Black Sea shipping insurance premia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15675.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional deep-strike package against Russian energy infrastructure or electronic warfare sites in Crimea and Russia’s southern military districts in the next day. Kyiv will seek to sustain psychological and logistical pressure while signaling that Russian strikes on Kyiv carry immediate costs in Crimea and the Russian rear. This risks further degrading Russian EW coverage and refinery output supporting both domestic supply and the war effort. Evidence of new fires, explosions, or power disruptions at Russian energy or EW nodes, especially in Crimea or near Kerch, would confirm this; a full 24 hours without Russian or Ukrainian reporting of such incidents would argue against it.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian strikes on at least 13 Russian energy and EW targets across Crimea and occupied east
- Russian domestic fuel shortages and import surges indicating vulnerability to further hits
- Emerging pattern of Ukrainian long-range drone campaign into Russian industrial rear
- Mutual escalation trend in attacks on fuel and logistics networks