# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drones Poised to Hit Additional Russian Refinery or Depot

*Issued Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 8:50 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-02T08:50:36.876Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-03T08:50:36.876Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Nizhny Novgorod region, Central and Western Russia, Occupied Crimea, Black Sea region, Moscow supply region
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries (Lukoil, Rosneft assets), Diesel and gasoline export flows from Russia, Urals and ESPO crude differentials, European refined product markets, Russian domestic fuel prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15612.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch further long-range drone strikes against Russian refining or oil-logistics infrastructure beyond Kstovo, targeting either another major refinery or storage site in western or central Russia. The operational aim will be to compound pressure on Russia’s fuel supply for both domestic consumption and military logistics. Each additional hit will incrementally tighten regional refined product markets and raise Moscow’s incentive to retaliate with deeper infrastructure strikes on Ukraine. Confirmation would be Russian regional reports of fires/explosions at energy sites and subsequent NOTAMs or industrial shutdowns; denial would be no reported cross-border attacks despite suitable launch windows and clear weather.

## Drivers

- Multiple confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes on Lukoil’s Kstovo refinery in recent days
- Warnings of sustained Ukrainian campaign against Russian refining capacity
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian long-range drone campaign extends deep into Russian industrial rear
- Recent hits on Crimean power substations and Feodosia oil depot