# [24H] Ukrainian Deep Strikes Likely to Hit Additional Russian Fuel or Power Nodes

*Issued Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 12:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-01T12:10:14.531Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-02T12:10:14.531Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russian Federation, Ukraine, Black Sea region, Europe
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differential, Russian domestic fuel market, European diesel cracks, Russian sovereign bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15503.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct at least one additional long-range strike against Russian fuel, power, or defense-industrial infrastructure beyond the already-hit Ufa, Penza, Volgograd, and Tula sites. Russian air-defense gaps and demonstrated Ukrainian intent to widen the strike envelope support continued raids into Russia’s interior. This will modestly deepen Russian domestic fuel strain and increase pressure for further rationing and imports rather than immediately altering frontline combat power. Confirmation would be new verified strikes on refineries, depots, substations, or defense plants; denial would be a full day without such incidents despite normal Ukrainian messaging tempo.

## Drivers

- Recent repeated Ukrainian strikes on Ufa refinery, Penza defense plant, Tula depot, and Volgograd arms facility
- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike campaigns targeting energy and industrial infrastructure
- Reports of drone-linked power cuts near Moscow and explosions in Kurgan