# [24H] Sudan’s RSF Prepares Immediate Offensive on El Obeid, Threatening Kordofan Supply Hub

*Issued Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 1:32 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-30T13:32:27.428Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-01T13:32:27.428Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: North Kordofan, Darfur, Khartoum corridor, Chad–Sudan border, South Sudan, Red Sea corridor
**Affected Assets**: East African Infrastructure Projects, CNPC and Chinese Oil Service Firms, Humanitarian Aid Funding Pipelines, Regional FX (Sudanese Pound, Chadian Franc exposure)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15393.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

The RSF is likely to initiate or significantly stage forces for an offensive on El Obeid in North Kordofan within 24 hours, following the surge in heavy airfreight deliveries into nearby arms nodes. Fighting for this junction city would quickly cut humanitarian corridors into Darfur and central Sudan and expose aid workers and civilians to siege-like conditions. It also risks deeper involvement by regional backers (notably some Gulf states via proxies) and could trigger cross-border insecurity toward Chad and South Sudan. Confirmation would be RSF movements spotted around El Obeid, sudden telecommunications cuts, or hospital reports of large-scale casualties; a last-minute ceasefire deal brokered by Gulf or African mediators would be a clear counter-signal.

## Drivers

- OSINT evidence of a spike in 747 freighters into Libya and Chad arms-linked hubs
- Warnings of looming battle for Kordofan in emerging trends
- Pattern of RSF offensives following resupply surges
- China’s interest in restarting CNPC operations in Sudan, raising stakes around stability