# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Campaign to Additional Russian Refineries and Fuel Depots

*Issued Monday, June 29, 2026 at 2:30 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-29T14:30:07.996Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-06T14:30:07.996Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 82% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Western Russia, Occupied Crimea, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and depots, Domestic Russian fuel prices and availability, European diesel and gasoline imports, Urals crude discounts
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15276.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Ukraine is likely to target at least one more major Russian refinery or fuel depot beyond Slavyansk‑on‑Kuban, continuing its campaign to degrade Russia’s fuel and logistics backbone. These attacks will exacerbate localized fuel shortages in southern and western Russia, forcing Moscow to reroute supply, tap strategic reserves, and prioritize military over civilian needs. Strategically, persistent strikes will raise war fatigue in affected Russian regions, complicate mobilization and training cycles, and maintain a risk premium in refined products. Confirmation would be verified damage to another large refinery or key storage hub; denial would be a clear pause in deep strikes despite available capabilities.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Ukrainian deep-strike attrition against Russian fuel systems
- Recent successful hit on Slavyansk‑on‑Kuban refinery
- Putin’s explicit confirmation of fuel shortages from strikes
- Availability of long-range drones and missiles targeting energy assets