# [24H] Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign to Hit Additional Russian South Energy Nodes

*Issued Monday, June 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-29T08:30:36.040Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-30T08:30:36.040Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar Krai, Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia region, Crimea, Kherson region
**Affected Assets**: Russian refined products exports (diesel, gasoline), Black Sea logistics hubs, European energy security sentiment
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15232.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to conduct at least one additional long‑range drone or missile strike against Russian or Russian‑occupied energy infrastructure in the southern theater (Krasnodar, Zaporizhzhia‑adjacent, or Crimea) in the next 24 hours. This targets refining, storage, or power transmission nodes to compound fuel shortages acknowledged by Putin and stress Russian military logistics. Short‑term battlefield impact is localized, but cumulative disruption erodes Russia’s operational tempo and raises regional energy security anxieties. Confirmation would be fresh fires or outages at Russian energy sites; denial would be an observable pause in Ukrainian deep strikes despite favorable conditions.

## Drivers

- Ongoing fire at Krasnodar oil refinery after Ukrainian drone strike
- Recent Ukrainian strikes cutting power in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and impacting Crimea
- Trend of Ukrainian systematic deep-strike campaign on Russian fuel and energy systems