# [7D] Ukraine Intensifies Strikes on Russian Fuel Network, Forcing Operational Fuel Rationing

*Issued Monday, June 29, 2026 at 2:29 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-29T02:29:59.022Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-06T02:29:59.022Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar region, Southern and Western Russia, Occupied southern Ukraine, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: Russian fuel logistics and depots, Military transport and armored units dependent on diesel, Global diesel supply balance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15214.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 7 days, Ukraine is likely to maintain or intensify its deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries and fuel depots, building on the fresh hit at Slavyansk-na-Kubani and previous attacks that prompted Putin’s admission of shortages. Russia will probably implement localized fuel rationing for civilian sectors in some regions and prioritize supplies for front-line and strategic assets, creating domestic discontent while preserving military capacity. The cumulative effect will be higher logistical friction for Russian operations in southern and central theaters, modestly limiting the tempo of offensive operations and redeployments. Confirmation would be additional geolocated strikes on refineries or depots, regional rationing orders, and reports of fuel scarcity; a sudden hardening of Russian air defenses that sharply curtails successful strikes would limit the impact.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Ukraine systematically targeting Russian energy and defense infrastructure
- Fresh strike on Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery and earlier refinery attacks
- Putin’s rare public acknowledgment of domestic fuel shortages linked to Ukrainian strikes