# [24H] Iranian Rial to Face Further Intraday Pressure Despite Hormuz Normalization Messaging

*Issued Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 12:49 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-28T12:49:15.603Z (6h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-29T12:49:15.603Z (18h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 69% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Gulf region (spillover risk), Turkey and Iraq (cross-border trade exposure)
**Affected Assets**: Iranian rial, Iranian domestic bond market (informal), Gold and USD demand inside Iran, Regional FX of high-trade partners
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15129.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, the Iranian rial is likely to weaken further on parallel markets as missile strikes on US bases and continued protests override any confidence gains from the Hormuz MoU. The market will discount Tehran’s promise of normalized shipping operations and focus instead on the risk of harsher US sanctions or financial tightening. A weaker currency will strain imports of food and medicine, heightening domestic discontent and indirectly raising regime risk. Confirmation would be reports of new lows in the free-market rial rate and widening spreads versus the official rate; denial would be signs of temporary stability following reported central-bank support or sanctions relief speculation.

## Drivers

- Recent 13% slump in the Iranian rial despite MoU and promised Hormuz easing
- Escalation via ballistic missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
- Expanded pensioner protests across multiple Iranian cities