# [30D] Gulf States Hedge Between US and Iran Amid Sustained Hormuz Tension

*Issued Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-28T06:49:11.966Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-28T06:49:11.966Z (30d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
**Affected Assets**: US-GCC defense pacts and basing rights, GCC diplomatic alignment in OPEC+ and regional forums, Foreign direct investment flows into Gulf states, Regional energy infrastructure security agreements
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15116.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over 30 days, GCC governments—especially Qatar, Oman, and the UAE—are likely to intensify hedging behavior, maintaining security reliance on the US while quietly expanding channels to Tehran to avoid becoming battlefields. Kuwait and Bahrain will remain firmly in the US camp due to host-base dependence but may discreetly signal limits on offensive use of their territory. This dual-track diplomacy will complicate unified GCC positioning, slow any formal NATO-style maritime coalition, and give Iran levers to exploit intra-Gulf differences. Confirmation would be parallel high-level contacts with US and Iranian officials, muted GCC collective statements, and asymmetric public vs. private messaging; denial would be a strong, unified GCC alignment with Washington and clear isolation of Tehran.

## Drivers

- Direct Iranian strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain dragging hosts into conflict
- Acute economic dependence on Hormuz stability
- Gulf history of hedging and back-channel contacts with Tehran
- Risk of domestic unrest if perceived as purely aligned with US war aims