# [7D] Ukraine Sustains Deep-Strike Campaign Degrading Russian Refining Capacity

*Issued Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-28T06:49:11.966Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-05T06:49:11.966Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 85% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia (Krasnodar), Central Russia (Yaroslavl), Ukraine, European energy import markets
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery infrastructure, Russian diesel and gasoline exports, Brent/Urals spread, European diesel prices, Russian military fuel logistics
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15105.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to continue large-scale drone and missile strikes against Russian refineries and gas processing sites, keeping select plants offline or intermittently disrupted. Success against Slavyansk EKO, Slavneft-YANOS, and nearby gas units indicates both capability and intent to erode Russia’s fuel supply and export infrastructure. This will tighten Russian domestic fuel markets, increase logistical strain on their military, and support higher product prices globally, particularly diesel and naphtha. Confirmation would be additional documented strikes on refineries beyond current targets; denial would be a visible Ukrainian pause due to resource constraints or Western diplomatic pressure.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed strikes on Slavyansk EKO refinery and Slavyanskaya gas unit
- Attempts on large Slavneft-YANOS refinery
- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s expanded deep-strike campaign on Russian energy
- Sustained trend: Russian fuel crisis from repeated infrastructure hits