# [24H] Brent and Oman Crude Likely Spike 3–8% on Hormuz War-Risk Repricing

*Issued Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-28T06:49:11.966Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-29T06:49:11.966Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Gulf exporters (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran), Europe, Asia-Pacific importers
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Oman/Dubai benchmarks, Urals crude, Gasoil and gasoline cracks, Tanker day rates, Marine war risk insurance premia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15100.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent and Oman crude benchmarks are likely to rise by 3–8% as traders fully price the risk of a sustained US–Iran shooting clash near Hormuz. Reports of a merchant ship hit, repeated missile exchanges, and direct threats to US bases and Gulf shipping push a higher war-risk premium despite unchanged immediate supply. This will widen Brent–Urals spreads, lift Middle East grades like Dubai/Oman, and support refined product cracks amid fears of disruption and Russian refinery outages. Confirmation would be strong front-month buying, higher backwardation, and widening freight and insurance rates; denial would be rapid diplomatic de-escalation or clear guarantees on convoy protection from a US-led coalition.

## Drivers

- Multiple FLASH alerts on US–Iran exchanges and ship hit near Hormuz
- CENTCOM threat level at CRITICAL
- Iranian threats against shipping and US bases
- Concurrent Ukrainian strikes degrading Russian refining capacity