# [24H] Further Attacks on Merchant Vessels Near Strait of Hormuz Likely in Next 24 Hours

*Issued Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-28T06:49:11.966Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-29T06:49:11.966Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, United Arab Emirates waters, Omani coast
**Affected Assets**: VLCC and product tankers, Container vessels transiting Hormuz-Bandar Abbas corridor, Marine war risk insurance, Global crude supply chains, Major shipping firms operating Gulf routes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15096.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

At least one additional incident involving a merchant vessel—missile, drone, or naval harassment—is likely near the Strait of Hormuz or off Oman within 24 hours. Iran is using shipping attacks to increase costs for US-aligned states and demonstrate leverage over global energy flows. This will pressure naval forces into higher-risk escort and interdiction operations, drive up insurance and rerouting, and heighten chances of a misidentified or neutral-flag ship being struck. Confirmation would be new reported hits, near-misses, or forced diversions; denial would be a quiet shipping lane combined with explicit Iranian messaging limiting operations to US military targets.

## Drivers

- Recent report of a merchant ship hit near Oman in or near the Strait of Hormuz
- Repeated Iranian threats against shipping following US strikes
- Historical IRGC pattern of using commercial shipping as pressure leverage
- Escalatory tit-for-tat dynamic with few off-ramps signaled