# [24H] Iran Likely to Launch Additional Drone or Missile Strikes Near Hormuz Shipping Lanes

*Issued Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 6:49 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-27T18:49:52.454Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-28T18:49:52.454Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Iran
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) freight rates, Tanker war-risk insurance, USD safe-haven flows, Defense sector equities (US and Gulf)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/15028.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Iran is likely to conduct at least one additional drone or missile strike against commercial shipping or proximate U.S.-linked assets near the Strait of Hormuz to signal defiance after U.S. airstrikes. The primary targets will be high‑value crude or product tankers or coastal radar-linked points seen as enabling U.S. operations. This will heighten immediate risk to crews and force navies to expand escorts and air defense coverage, increasing the chance of miscalculation. Confirmation would be credible reports of new hits or attempted strikes on tankers or Gulf infrastructure; denial would be a verifiable Iranian stand‑down accompanied by de‑escalatory rhetoric.

## Drivers

- Multiple recent Iranian drone attacks on tankers and Bahrain
- U.S. retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites
- Pattern of tit-for-tat signaling around strategic chokepoints
- Emerging trend: Iran–US confrontation normalizes coercive attacks on commercial shipping