# [24H] Brent, LNG Benchmarks Spike Modestly as Hormuz Risk Premium and Venezuela Quake Fears Converge

*Issued Friday, June 26, 2026 at 8:27 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-26T20:27:51.235Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-27T20:27:51.235Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela and Caribbean basin, East Asia LNG importers
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Maya and Merey heavy crude differentials, JKM LNG benchmark, Tanker equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14906.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude and key LNG benchmarks in Asia will trade up on a combined risk premium from Hormuz insecurity and Venezuelan quake-driven supply concerns. Traders will price limited but plausible disruptions to Venezuelan exports through La Guaira and heightened threat to Gulf shipping, prompting precautionary hedging and some physical buyers to seek alternative heavy crude and LNG cargoes. This uptick will be amplified by headlines on seafarer evacuations and Venezuela’s disaster declaration, even if actual export volumes have not yet fallen sharply. Rising front-month Brent and Dubai spreads, along with higher implied volatility in LNG derivatives, would validate the forecast; a sharp reversal on news of stable shipments or a de-escalatory Iran signal would weaken it.

## Drivers

- Iran drone attack on merchant ship in Strait of Hormuz
- Evacuation of thousands of seafarers from Hormuz
- Venezuela declaring massive disaster in La Guaira with oil logistics risk
- Emerging trend of Hormuz contested deterrence and monetized passage