# [24H] Ukraine Likely to Repeat Deep-Strike Drone Raids on Russian Energy Sites Within 24 Hours

*Issued Friday, June 26, 2026 at 5:22 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-26T05:22:54.792Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-27T05:22:54.792Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Tula Oblast, Crimea, Southern Russia, Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refined products exports, Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer supply, Russian power grid stability, Insurance premiums for Russian industrial sites
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14785.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Ukrainian forces are likely to launch another wave of long-range drones against Russian refineries, power assets, or chemical plants within the next 24 hours, building on the Azot and Tula strikes and fires near Kerch airfield. Target selection will prioritize fuel, fertilizer, and Black Sea–linked logistics nodes to stress Russian rear-area resilience and air defenses. This would harden Russia’s shift of air-defense assets away from the front, creating openings for Ukrainian tactical gains in the theater and reinforcing a narrative of vulnerability inside Russia. Confirmation would come from new Russian governor or MoD statements on downed drones or damage at industrial sites deep in Russian territory; denial would be a full 24-hour lull in reported strikes beyond front-line regions.

## Drivers

- Fresh mass drone barrage on Tula region and Azot chemical plant
- Emerging trend of Ukraine targeting energy and fuel infrastructure deep in Russia
- Reports of fires near Kerch airfield in occupied Crimea