# [7D] Russia-Ukraine Energy War Expands Into Systematic Mutual Deep-Strike Campaigns

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T23:22:49.454Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-02T23:22:49.454Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 77% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: European Russia, Ukraine, Black Sea region, Central Europe (as downstream energy consumer)
**Affected Assets**: Russian and Ukrainian refinery networks, European diesel and gasoline markets, Electricity grids in Ukraine, Cross-border energy trading flows
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14765.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Russia and Ukraine are likely to escalate into a more systematic mutual deep-strike campaign explicitly targeting each other’s refineries, power plants, and critical fuel depots beyond current episodic attacks. Ukraine will sustain or increase drone strikes on Russian refineries and storage facilities, while Russia doubles down on Ukrainian power and refining assets, including secondary targets like rail fuel hubs and transformer yards. Strategically, this raises the conflict’s economic cost, risks cross-border environmental incidents, and entrenches a semi-permanent energy risk premium for European consumers. Confirmation would be multiple additional successful hits on refineries or major energy nodes on both sides; denial would be a noticeable reduction in deep strikes or an informal understanding, potentially brokered via third parties, to spare certain energy infrastructure.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strike on NORSI and earlier Russian refinery hits
- Russian saturation attacks on Kremenchuk refinery and power plant
- Emerging trend explicitly describing mutual deep-strike focus on strategic energy and fuel systems