# [24H] Ukrainian Drones Likely to Hit Additional Russian Fuel or Depot Target After NORSI Strike

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T23:22:49.454Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-26T23:22:49.454Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Volga Federal District, Central Russia, Southern Russia, Occupied Crimea (as potential target area)
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery network, Russian rail fuel logistics, European gasoline market exposure to Russian exports, Russian military fuel depots
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14757.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to attempt another long-range drone or missile strike on Russian fuel infrastructure or logistics depots within 24 hours to reinforce the perceived reciprocity after NORSI’s shutdown. This will directly affect Russian domestic gasoline and diesel availability in selected regions and force additional dispersal and hardening of fuel assets, marginally increasing Russian logistical friction in supporting front-line units. At the strategic level, a visible new hit deep inside Russia will harden Moscow’s perception of Western backing and could invite retaliatory escalation against Ukrainian cities. Confirmation would be Russian and OSINT reporting of new impacts on refineries, fuel terminals, or large depots; falsification would be 24–48 hours with no such incidents and Ukrainian messaging emphasizing operational pause rather than momentum.

## Drivers

- Successful Ukrainian drone strike forcing NORSI refinery shutdown
- Public Ukrainian narrative of entering a new deep-strike phase
- Patterns of rapid follow-on strikes after prior successful campaigns