# [24H] Russian Missile-Drones to Re-Strike Ukrainian Energy Nodes After Kremenchuk Blackout

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T23:22:49.454Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-26T23:22:49.454Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine, Poltava Oblast, Dnipro Region, Kharkiv Region
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power grid, Ukrainian rail logistics, Diesel and gasoline supply in Ukraine, Western air defense missile inventories (Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14756.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Russia is likely to follow the Kremenchuk refinery and thermal plant attacks with additional strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in central or eastern Ukraine, aiming to sustain pressure on the grid and fuel logistics. This will primarily hit Ukraine’s military mobility, air defense dispersal, and civilian resilience in affected cities, forcing further power rationing and diesel prioritization for frontline use. Strategically, continued salvos stress Ukraine’s air defense missile stockpiles and may accelerate Western decisions on additional interceptors and long-range strike authorizations. Confirmation would come from fresh Iskander, cruise missile, or drone strikes on power plants, substations, or refineries; a contrary sign would be a 24-hour lull in deep strikes paired with Russian messaging framing the Kremenchuk attack as a discrete response.

## Drivers

- Repeated, escalating Russian use of Iskander-M and Geran-2 swarms against Kremenchuk refinery and thermal plant
- Tit-for-tat pattern following Ukrainian strike on NORSI refinery
- Russia’s established doctrine of targeting Ukrainian energy to degrade war-sustaining capacity