# [7D] Russian Refinery Damage and Ukrainian Fuel Losses Boost Global Diesel and Gasoline Crack Spreads

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 5:23 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T17:23:25.931Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-02T17:23:25.931Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Turkey, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: European diesel and gasoline crack spreads, ICE gasoil futures, Freight costs for trucking and agriculture, Refiner equities in Europe and Asia, Russian energy company equities and bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14741.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, cumulative damage to Russian refining capacity and Russian strikes on Ukrainian fuel depots are likely to tighten regional refined product supply, lifting diesel and gasoline crack spreads in Europe and parts of Asia. Traders will anticipate lower Russian product exports, especially diesel, while Ukraine increases import needs to sustain its military and civilian sectors. This will benefit non-Russian refiners but squeeze transport, agriculture, and industrial users, particularly in emerging Europe and the Black Sea region. Confirmation would be rising diesel and gasoline cracks on major exchanges and reports of reduced Russian product export volumes; denial would be quick restoration of damaged refineries and limited impact on export flows.

## Drivers

- Strikes on Bashneft Ufa refineries and associated fires
- Russian Geran attacks on Ukrainian fuel storage and stations
- Trend toward infrastructure targeting in the Russia–Ukraine war
- Historic sensitivity of diesel markets to Russian export disruptions