# [7D] Russia–Ukraine Mutual Deep-Strike Cycle Expands to More Refineries and Power Plants

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 5:23 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T17:23:25.931Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-02T17:23:25.931Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central and Western Russia (refinery regions), Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Crimea), Black Sea energy corridors, Eastern and Central Europe fuel markets
**Affected Assets**: Russian gasoline and diesel export availabilities, European diesel crack spreads, Ukrainian domestic fuel prices, Electricity prices in bordering EU states, Rail logistics operators in the region
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14735.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to expand their strategic deep-strike campaigns, with Ukraine targeting additional Russian refineries and possibly power infrastructure beyond Ufa, while Russia intensifies drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian fuel depots and power plants. This tit-for-tat will raise operational pressure on both countries’ logistics and civilian grids, increasing maintenance backlogs and forcing ad hoc rerouting of fuel and electricity. For Ukraine, sustained hits will constrain frontline mobility; for Russia, compounded refinery outages will require higher product imports or drawdowns from storage, tightening regional fuel balances. Confirmation would be more reported refinery fires in Russia and repeat strikes on Ukrainian energy distribution nodes; denial would be a sudden diplomatic push or resource depletion curbing such long-range operations.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian drone strikes damaging Ufa refineries (10.5 Mt/year capacity)
- Russian Geran attacks concentrating on Ukrainian fuel and logistics hubs
- Emerging and sustained trends emphasizing mutual deep-strike infrastructure warfare
- Kremlin and Kyiv incentives to weaken each other’s war-sustaining capacity