# [24H] IRGC Likely to Conduct Additional Hormuz Intercepts and Warning Shots on Non‑Compliant Shipping

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 5:23 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T17:23:25.931Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-26T17:23:25.931Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Oman, Iran, UAE
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai/Oman Crude benchmarks, LNG spot cargoes from Qatar, VLCC and Suezmax tanker rates, Shipping insurers and P&I clubs, US Defense equities, GCC sovereign bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14722.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Iran’s IRGC Navy is likely to further enforce its de facto routing regime in the Strait of Hormuz via aggressive hailing, maneuvers, and at least one additional warning-shot or near-ship projectile incident. Commercial tankers and cargo vessels attempting non-IRGC-approved lanes will face the highest risk, especially along the Omani side routes that have seen recent turnbacks and one confirmed hit. This behavior will harden a perception that Iran now controls operational rules in Hormuz, pressuring the US and Gulf militaries to increase escort and surveillance, thereby raising miscalculation risk. A clear confirmatory signal would be AIS-tracked diversions or forced halts plus new incident reports of projectiles or boarding attempts; denial would be an observable pause in IRGC challenges combined with public clarification from Tehran softening enforcement rhetoric.

## Drivers

- Confirmed IRGC strike on a cargo/tanker vessel off Oman after alleged route noncompliance
- Multiple tankers turning back from Hormuz following IRGC permission demands
- Tehran’s push for a $40B transit fee and formalized routing regime
- CENTCOM theater threat level assessed as HIGH with explicit Hormuz escalation