# [24H] Caracas Declares Partial Fuel Export Prioritization, Signaling Energy National Emergency

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 5:24 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T05:24:12.309Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-26T05:24:12.309Z (20h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 61% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Venezuela, Caribbean Basin, US Gulf Coast, Latin America importers
**Affected Assets**: Merey and other Venezuelan heavy crude grades, Caribbean refinery runs, PDVSA joint venture partners, Venezuelan domestic fuel availability
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14662.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, the Venezuelan government is likely to issue directives informally or formally prioritizing domestic fuel distribution and critical infrastructure over crude and product exports in response to quake damage and transport shutdowns. PDVSA will face acute logistical bottlenecks moving staff and supplies to fields, refineries, and ports, forcing ad hoc rationing decisions even if core oil assets avoided major damage. This will be framed as a patriotic emergency measure, tightening Caracas’s control over domestic fuel and potentially increasing leverage over foreign partners. Confirmation would be notices to PDVSA clients of loading delays or domestic allocation priority; denial would be clear statements emphasizing uninterrupted export volumes and minimal internal rationing.

## Drivers

- Nationwide Venezuelan state of emergency with major transport and airport closures
- Multiple warnings about risk to oil output, logistics, and port capacity
- USGS red alert and potential GDP loss estimates up to 20%
- Pre-existing fragility of PDVSA infrastructure and domestic fuel shortages