# [30D] Russia Expands Mass Drone and Glide-Bomb Use to Offset Precision-Munitions Shortages

*Issued Wednesday, June 24, 2026 at 5:23 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-24T05:23:48.839Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-24T05:23:48.839Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 69% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: All of Ukraine, Western Russia, Belarus (launch areas)
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian Air-Defense Missile Stocks, Civilian Infrastructure in Targeted Cities, Western Air-Defense and Counter-Drone Supply Chains, Russian Drone Manufacturing Facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14566.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, as chip constraints and Ukrainian strikes on industrial facilities bite, Russia will ramp up use of mass-produced drones and glide bombs to compensate for dwindling stocks of high-end precision munitions. This will increase the overall volume of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and frontline positions, but reduce accuracy and raise collateral damage risks in populated areas. The shift will test Ukraine’s air-defense ammunition and necessitate new counter-drone tactics and production partnerships with Western states. Confirmation would be a measurable rise in drone and glide-bomb sorties relative to cruise/hypersonic missiles; denial would be sustained high usage of complex precision systems without visible substitution.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: Russia intensifies mass drone strikes and bomber hardening
- Destruction of Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant by Ukrainian strike
- Existing sanctions-induced constraints on Russian precision-munitions production