# [7D] Continued Ukraine Deep Strikes and Russian Air Raids Increase Civilian Hardship on Both Sides

*Issued Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 5:22 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-23T17:22:32.934Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-30T17:22:32.934Z (7d from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Eastern and Southern Ukraine, Western Russia (near fuel and rail hubs), Crimea
**Affected Assets**: Local electricity and fuel distribution networks, Civilian housing and health infrastructure, Humanitarian supply corridors inside Ukraine, Cross-border NGO operations
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14499.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next week, Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign on Russian infrastructure and ongoing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian cities like Mykolaiv and Kharkiv will lead to more power, fuel, and service disruptions affecting civilians in both countries. Ukrainians will face blackouts and urban insecurity, while Russian communities near targeted fuel and logistics hubs will encounter shortages, localized pollution, and psychological stress from previously untouched areas coming under fire. Humanitarian organizations will struggle to access newly affected zones in Russia and contested areas of Ukraine. Confirmation would include additional strikes causing civilian outages, emergency fuel rationing, or evacuations; denial would be an unexpected lull in long-range strikes from either side.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Rybinsk fuel facility and Crimean bridges and depots
- Reports of Russian missile and air strikes on Mykolaiv and Kharkiv region
- Emerging escalation: Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign shifts to tech-industrial core
- Russian trend of mass drone salvos and hardened strategic assets