# [24H] Hormuz Fee Waiver and Controlled Reopening Ease Brent Toward Lower Risk Band

*Issued Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-18T22:41:53.584Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-19T22:41:53.584Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: de-escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Persian Gulf, East Asia, Europe
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, Tanker Insurance Premiums
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13832.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over 24 hours, confirmation of a 60-day Hormuz fee waiver and managed traffic regime will continue to shave the geopolitical risk premium from Brent and Dubai benchmarks, biasing prices slightly lower or capping rallies. Shipping insurers and charterers will treat the MoU as credible in the very short term, allowing more VLCCs and product tankers to re-enter the choke point under scheduled convoys. This calms immediate fears of a quasi-toll regime or sudden closure but leaves a latent risk that any breakdown in U.S.–Iran talks or Lebanon escalation can reverse sentiment quickly. Confirmation would be a gradual uptick in Hormuz transits and flat-to-lower Brent versus gold; denial would be new delays, boarding incidents, or threat-laden Iranian naval messaging.

## Drivers

- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council statement waiving Hormuz transit fees for 60 days
- U.S. Central Command confirmation that the naval blockade has ended with controlled traffic
- Recent transition from full disruption to managed-flow regime in the Gulf theater
- Market expectation of conditional but real U.S.–Iran de-escalation