# [24H] Iran Keeps Hormuz Fee Waiver Intact Despite Suspension of Switzerland Talks

*Issued Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-18T22:41:53.584Z (6h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-19T22:41:53.584Z (18h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, VLCC Freight Rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13828.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Tehran is very likely to publicly reaffirm the 60-day Hormuz transit fee waiver even as it keeps its delegation away from Switzerland talks in protest of Israeli actions in Lebanon. Iran will use the waiver to signal reliability to Asian crude buyers while leveraging the talks freeze to pressure Washington and Jerusalem on the Lebanon front. This split posture preserves near-term maritime stability but embeds conditionality that could later be weaponized if Israel escalates. Confirmation would be Iranian port or maritime notices reiterating toll-free transit and no new threatening naval maneuvers; denial would be sudden Iranian inspection delays, ambiguous naval warnings, or talk of “revisiting” the MoU.

## Drivers

- Official confirmation that Iran waived Strait of Hormuz transit fees for 60 days
- Reports that Iran froze the Switzerland talks over Israeli strikes in Lebanon
- Emerging trend of Iran leveraging missile narrative and Hormuz control for deterrence
- Public statement that the naval blockade is ended and traffic will ramp up under controls