# [24H] Ukraine Launches Follow-On Drone Probes Against Russian Refineries After Moscow Strike

*Issued Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-18T22:41:53.584Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-19T22:41:53.584Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Occupied Eastern Ukraine, Black Sea Region
**Affected Assets**: Urals Crude Differentials, European Diesel Futures, Russian Energy Equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13826.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional, smaller-scale drone sorties testing Russian air defenses around key oil and logistics nodes in western Russia and occupied territories. These will likely target storage depots, rail junctions, and possibly secondary refineries rather than another headline asset near Moscow. The operations will maintain psychological and logistical pressure on Russia’s war economy while forcing continued dispersal of air-defense assets away from the front. Confirmation would be local reports or satellite imagery of new fires at depots in Bryansk, Kursk, or Rostov regions; denial would be an absence of strikes and public Ukrainian focus shifting solely back to frontline artillery duels.

## Drivers

- Recent destruction of Ust-Labinsk oil depot by Ukrainian drones
- Confirmed Ukrainian swarm attack on Moscow-area refinery using long-range drones
- Emerging trend of systematic deep targeting of Russian energy and logistics
- UK announcement of a massive new drone shipment to Ukraine