# [7D] Ukraine Deep-Strike Campaign Expected to Systematically Degrade Russian Southern Fuel Network

*Issued Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 4:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-18T16:41:42.847Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-25T16:41:42.847Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 73% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Rostov Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, Donetsk and Luhansk fronts
**Affected Assets**: Russian military fuel depots, Exportable diesel and fuel oil volumes, Black Sea and Azov Sea logistics chains, European refined product imports from non-Russian sources
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13804.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine is likely to expand its deep‑strike drone and sabotage campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure from Moscow and Gukovo to additional depots and pipelines across the Rostov, Belgorod, and possibly Krasnodar regions. The objective will be to erode Russia’s military fuel redundancy for operations in Donbas and along the Azov–Black Sea axis, forcing longer supply lines and higher operational costs. Russian forces will respond with increased air defense deployments inland and harsher security measures around key facilities, potentially stretching manpower. Confirmation would be at least two new successful hits on depots or refineries in southern Russia; denial would be a noticeable lull in Ukrainian long-range activity despite ongoing war aims and Western support.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: Ukraine escalates deep drone campaign on Russian energy and logistics nodes
- Recent hits on Rostovnefteprodukt and Gukovo fuel depot following Moscow strikes
- Western provision of large-scale drone packages and long-war posture
- Ukrainian leadership rhetoric prioritizing Russian oil infrastructure as strategic targets